PENGARUH GENCATAN SENJATA IRAN – ISRAEL TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI GLOBAL

Abstrak

Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have long been one of the main factors affecting global economic stability, especially through its impact on energy markets, investment, and international trade. This study aims to analyze the impact of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel on global economic growth with a focus on the energy sector, financial market stability, and international trade flows. Using a descriptive-analytical approach with secondary data from international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and OPEC, this study finds that the ceasefire has a positive short-term effect in the form of a decrease in world oil prices, increased investor confidence, and strengthening the exchange rates of developing countries' currencies. In addition, the creation of relative political stability in the Middle East region has encouraged an increase in export-import activities and restored previously disrupted global supply chains. However, the long-term impact is highly dependent on the sustainability of peace and the strategic responses of other global actors. This study emphasizes the importance of economic diplomacy and multilateral cooperation to maintain the momentum of economic growth after the ceasefire.

Ketegangan geopolitik antara Iran dan Israel telah lama menjadi salah satu faktor utama yang mempengaruhi kestabilan ekonomi global, terutama melalui dampaknya terhadap pasar energi, investasi, dan perdagangan internasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh gencatan senjata antara Iran dan Israel terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi global dengan fokus pada sektor energi, stabilitas pasar keuangan, dan arus perdagangan internasional. Menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif-analitis dengan data sekunder dari lembaga-lembaga internasional seperti IMF, World Bank, dan OPEC, studi ini menemukan bahwa gencatan senjata memberikan efek positif jangka pendek berupa penurunan harga minyak dunia, peningkatan kepercayaan investor, serta penguatan nilai tukar mata uang negara-negara berkembang. Selain itu, terciptanya kestabilan politik relatif di kawasan Timur Tengah mendorong peningkatan aktivitas ekspor-impor dan memulihkan rantai pasok global yang sebelumnya terganggu. Namun demikian, dampak jangka panjang sangat bergantung pada keberlangsungan perdamaian serta respons strategis dari aktor-aktor global lainnya. Penelitian ini menegaskan pentingnya diplomasi ekonomi dan kerja sama multilateral untuk mempertahankan momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi pasca gencatan senjata.